In just a few short weeks, the long-awaited series of presidential debates will begin at the University of Denver, where Jim Lehrer will pepper President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney with questions on domestic policy. Judging from the commentary of the Sunday Morning Political Chat-Show punditocracy, these debates will be a make-or-break moment -- indeed, perhaps the makiest-or-breakiest moment -- for the Romney campaign, the conventions period having been judged to have insufficiently "bounced" his standing in the polls.
For the media, the debates are, indeed, a shiny object that, critically, they have budgeted a lot of money to cover. Political scientists, however, disagree on whether presidential debates can have a significant impact on the race. Here's John Sides, making that point:
That presidential debates can be "game changers" is a belief almost universally held by political pundits and strategists. Political scientists, however, aren't so sure. Indeed, scholars who have looked most carefully at the data have found that, when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of the election, presidential debates have rarely, if ever, mattered.
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